A New Index Outperforms the Purchasing Managers' Index

Rolando F. Peláez

16 citations0/0 files storedQuarterly journal of business and economics

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Financial Markets and Investment Strategies Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Abstract

Several recent papers have documented the effects on domestic and overseas financial markets of unexpected changes in the Purchasing Managers ' Index (PMI). This paper introduces a new composite index of diffusion indices from the Institute for Supply Management. The proposed index dominates the PMI as an indicator of the growth rates of real GDP and of industrial production. Moreover, as a stand-alone indicator of business cycle turning points, the new index is superior in timeliness to the Conference Board's composite coincident index and equal to it in consistency.

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References

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2005As the PMI Turns: A Tool for Supply Chain Managers 2013Purchasing and supply managers provide early clues on the direction of the US economy: An application of a new market-timing test

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