艾勒悖论(Allais Paradox)另释

李纾 · Li Shu

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Economic and Environmental Valuation Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies

Abstract

艾勒悖论违背了期望效用(Expected Urtility)理论的独立性(independence)原则，成为欲推翻期望效用理论的杠杆。齐当别抉择模型不将风险决策行为看成是追求某种最大期望值的抉择反应，而将其看成是最好可能结果之间的取舍或者最坏可能结果之间的取舍。此项研究设计了一判断技术，并用此对艾勒设计的选择问题加以检验。实验表明，判断结果所示的齐当别策略能满意地对艾勒选择题作出解释。

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