A cautionary note on global recalibration

Joseph Born Kadane · Baruch Fischhoff

11 citations0/0 files storedJudgment and Decision Making

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Forecasting Techniques and Applications Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference

Abstract

Abstract We report a mathematical result that casts doubt on the possibility of recalibration of probabilities using calibration curves. We then discuss how to interpret this result in the light of behavioral research.

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1986Decision analysis and behavioral research 1982Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 1990Uncertainty 2006Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities 1954Experimental psychology.1991Bias in Quantifying Judgments 1994Behavioral Decision Theory 1985Calibration, Coherence, and Scoring Rules

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2014Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence

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