Estimating Toll Road Demand and Revenue

Abstract

This synthesis reports on the state of the practice for forecasting demand and revenues for toll roads in the United States. The synthesis focused on the models that are used to forecast the demand for travel. It also considered the application of these models to project revenues as a function of demand estimates. Goals included: developing a profile of the current state of the practice in toll road demand forecasting; identifying technical modeling issues that affect the accuracy, effectiveness, and reliability of the forecasts; and making recommendations for research to improve the state of the practice. The report is intended to serve as a resource for state departments of transportation (DOTs), metropolitan planning organizations, tolling authorities and operators, potential investors, bond rating agencies, and consultants who prepare models and forecasts on behalf of DOTs and other toll facility owners. A survey was distributed to various state DOTs, toll authorities, bond rating agencies, and bond insurance agencies in the United States. A literature search was undertaken to identify relevant research reports, papers, and other publications for review.

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