Evacuation Risks: An Evaluation

Abstract

A study was conducted to assess the risk of death, injury, and cost associated with an evacuation of population groups affected by an incident at a fixed nuclear facility. Data and information were obtained by contacting persons and organizations involved with previous evacuations precipitated by natural or man-made causes and from available literature on the subject. Frequencies of 8.9 x 10-8 deaths per person-mile and 4.4 x 10-8 injuries per person-mile were derived from data representing vehicle evacuations involving approximately 5.5 x 105 persons. National Safety Council (NSC) data for motor vehicle accidents indicate frequencies of 2.4 x 10-8 deaths per person-mile and 9.0 x 10-7 injuries per person-mile. Because of the small number of deaths and injuries derived from the study of evacuations, no statistical comparison with NSC information could be made; however, strong subjective information suggests that NSC data can be used for estimating the risk of injury or death.

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