The great transition.

Abstract

As China's economy grows and opens further, the opportunity it presents to multinationals is changing. Foreign companies are moving to country development and new strategic choices. Now, foreign firms can actually go after the Chinese domestic market, and it's worth going after. Improvements in China's infrastructure, workforce, and regulatory environment are making it possible for companies to lower their costs to reap new competitive advantages. Multifaceted and often-shifting risks accompany this shifting opportunity. The reforms required for admission into the WTO will be politically difficult for China to implement, and its progress will be slowed by the scarcity of resources for the country's shaky banking system, the inadequacy of the social safety net, environmental problems, and local governments' cash shortage. China's breathtaking 9% average annual GDP growth rests on an unsteady foundation of overcapitalized state-owned enterprises, which have oversupplied many markets, and fiercely protectionist regional government officials pursuing growth-at-almost-all-costs policies. Frequent changes in regulations, bureaucracies, and reporting relationships will continue to make planning difficult, and, as the SARS epidemic demonstrated, there is always the potential for serious disruptions. But for at least the next ten years, multinationals should be the biggest winners in China. To reap the benefits, a multinational must properly nest its effort into its overall organization, show "one face to China" at the national level but also tailor local strategies, be wary of joint ventures, and mitigate risk, in particular the theft of intellectual property. China is a major opportunity for companies that forthrightly face its complexities. It will remain largely inscrutable--and unprofitable--for the rest.

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