Article1994

Methods for Projecting the Future Size and Health Status of the U. S. Elderly Population

Kenneth G. Mantón · Eric Stallard · Burton H. Singer

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Aging, Health, and Disability demographic modeling and climate adaptation

Abstract

In this chapter we (i) introduce integrated models of risk factor dynamics and mortality processes calibrated from longitudinal data to forecast preventive and curative intervention effects; (ii) compare actuarial forecasts with those based on multivariate stochastic processes; and (iii) introduce models integrating disability dynamics with mortality processes as a step toward integrating the dynamics of multiple biological levels.... (EXCERPT)

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