RISK ASSESSMENT OF TRANSPORTING HAZARDOUS MATERIAL: ROUTE ANALYSIS AND HAZARD MANAGEMENT.

Abstract

The transportation of hazardous materials is a growing national problem. The percentage of highway and rail accidents that involve hazardous materials is increasing, the amount of damages per accident is escalating, and compliance with transportation regulations is eroding. A model for hazardous materials risk management is developed in this paper wherein vulnerability is a product of risk reduction (mitigation) and preparedness. Various risk assessment approaches to shipping hazardous materials along major routes were presented and applied to the state of Arizona so that the transportation routes could be comparatively evaluated. Type and volume of flow were determined from a survey of commercial trucks that permitted an analysis of hazardous materials accident probabilities for individual routes. By using evacuation distances for chemical spills, a population risk factor was defined as the multiplicative product of hazardous materials accident probabilities and population-at-risk. The risk score for individual routes reflected the interaction of four variables: (a) the number of hazardous events that have occurred on the route, (b) hazardous materials accident probability, (c) population-at-risk and the potential hazard rating--a composite index incorporating potential incident severity, and (d) volume of hazardous materials by class.

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