The GVAR Handbook: Structure and Applications of a Macro Model of the Global Economy for Policy Analysis

Abstract

1. Introduction 2. The Basic GVAR DdPS Model INTERNATIONAL TRANSMISSION AND FORECASTING 3. Global Recessions and Output Interdependencies in a GVAR Model of Actual and Expected Output in the G7 4. The GVAR Approach to Structural Modelling 5. External Shocks and International Inflation Linkages 6. International Business Cycles and the Role of Financial Markets 7. Using Global VAR Models for Scenario-based Forecasting and Policy Analysis 8. Short and medium-term forecasting using 'pooling' techniques FINANCE APPLICATIONS 9. Nowcasting Quarterly Euro Area GDP Growth using a Global VAR Model 10. Macroprudential Applications of the GVAR 11. Modelling Sovereign Bond Spreads in the Euro Area: A Non-linear Global VAR Model 12. The International Spillover of Fiscal Spending on Financial Variables REGIONAL APPLICATIONS 13. China's Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America 14. Does One Size Fit All? Modelling Macroeconomic Linkages in the West African Economic and Monetary Union 15. Competitiveness, External Imbalances, and Economic Linkages in the Euro Area 16. Forecasting the Swiss Economy with a Small GVAR Model 17. Regional Financial Spillovers Across Europe 18. Conclusion

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