This report presents data on the lifetime likelihood of a US resident being incarcerated in a state or federal prison. The hypothetical measure used in the analysis is based on the assumption that recent incarceration rates and death rates will remain stable and excludes data on admissions to local jails. This measure reveals a 5.1% lifetime chance of incarceration with men more than eight times more likely than women to be incarcerated. Black men are twice as likely as Hispanic men and six times more likely than White men to be imprisoned. Rates of incarceration for women are 3.6% for Blacks 1.5% for Hispanics and 0.5% for Whites. When age factors are included in the calculation the likelihood of going to prisons is shown to decrease with advancing age. The report also discusses adjustments that were made to data derived from 1991 surveys of State and Federal prisoners to obtain the total number of first admissions (the surveys failed to include people who were admitted and released during the 12 months prior to the survey). After including data on the type of offenses for first incarcerations the remainder of the report is devoted to a consideration of the validity of the data analysis. Data from surveys of State prisoners in 1974 1979 1986 and 1991 support the life table finding. A comparison is then made of lifetime rates to other measures of incarceration such as one-day prevalence rates or 1-year admission rates. The life table technique used in this report is then described in detail.
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