The use of computer simulation models to evaluate the risks of damage to objects exposed to varying indoor climate conditions in the past, present, and future

Z Zara Huijbregts · Marco Martens · Jos W.M. van Schijndel · Henk L. Schellen

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Conservation Techniques and Studies Cultural Heritage Materials Analysis Building materials and conservation

Abstract

In the European project Climate for Culture we are trying to evaluate the risks for valuable historical objects exposed to changing indoor conditions due to external climate change. There is an extensive literature on the risks to objects exposed to varying indoor climate conditions. For some well-defined objects, like wooden paintings, experiments and computer simulations have led to descriptions of safe boundary conditions to prevent various types of damage such as mechanical damage. These results, however, have not yet been used in a systematic way to valuate risks for objects exposed to existing or predicted indoor climate conditions. Within the Climate for Culture project, we have investigated whether the results from literature can be used to construct so-called damage functions to evaluate the risks for objects. Furthermore, computer simulation models have been used to calculate the expected indoor climate of buildings exposed to a varying outdoor climate. This outdoor climate might be constructed from a historical data file (more than 100 years ago), the present (less than 50 year ago) or predicted future data from outdoor climate prediction computer models (for the next 100 years). The simulated indoor climate will create the input for the risk evaluation. The input might be coupled to damage functions to directly predict the risks for damage to objects. This paper deals with the modelling approach and shows the potential for damage risk evaluation. The historic, present and future indoor climate conditions in a characteristic historic building have been modelled and the damage risk to historical objects has been compared when the building is virtually placed in 468 different locations in Europe. In this way, the impact of future climate change on the indoor climate conditions in a building and the damage potential to its collection can be assessed for areas across Europe.

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