Validity and usefulness of enlistment intention information

Abstract

This document reports on the validity and application of enlistment intention information for nonprior-service youth (i.e., individuals who have not previously served in the military). A number of surveys of young people ask respondents to rate their intention to enlist in the military. The resulting information has been used for three major purposes. First, to support recruit marketing analyses, intention information has been used as a means of distinguishing individuals who are more likely to enlist from those less likely to do so. Second, intention information has been used at the aggregate level as a barometer of enlistment rates. Third, to provide policy guidance, intention information has been used to predict changes in military enlistment and reenlistment behavior in response to alternative prospective options. The results discussed in this synthesis document provide strong support for using enlistment intention information in recruiting research. These results demonstrate both the relationship between stated intention and actual enlistment behavior and the potential usefulness of intention data in making enlistment predictions for a variety of purposes. In addition, we found that several factors affect the relationship between intention and enlistment and that the negative intention group is an important source of enlistees.

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