Inflation convergence during the transition to EMU

Paul DE GRAUWE

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Global Financial Crisis and Policies European Monetary and Fiscal Policies

Abstract

According to the Maastricht Treaty, EMS countries will be able to join EMU if their inflation rates are not more than 1.5% higher than the average of the three lowest inflation rates in the EMS. In this paper I analyse the likelihood of inflation rates converging to the levels set out in the Maastricht Treaty, and conclude that this is unlikely to be the case. I study whether the Maastricht convergence requirement for inflation rates is not needlessly tight.

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1996Towards a Strategic View on EMU: A Critical Survey 2007Catching-up and inflation differentials in a heterogeneous monetary union: Some implications for the euro area and new EU Member States 2000Endogenous Financial Structure and the Transmission of ECB Policy 1994Real Exchange Rates and the Prices of Nontradable Goods 2002Did the EMS encourage inflation convergence?

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