Impact of public programs on fertility and gender specific investment in human capital of children in rural India: cross sectional and time series analyses.

Abstract

Cross sectional and time series analyses are conducted with 1971 and 1981 rural district level data for India in order to estimate variations in program impacts on household decisionmaking concerning fertility, child mortality, and schooling; to analyze how the variation in public program subsidies and services influences sex specific investments in schooling; and to examine the bias in cross sectional estimates by employing fixed effects methodology. The theory of household production uses the framework development by Rosenzweig and Wolpin. The utility function is expressed as a function of families' desired number of children, sex specific investment in human capital of children measured by schooling of males and females, and a composite consumption good. Budget constraints are characterized in terms of the biological supply of births or natural fertility, the number of births averted by fertility control, exogenous money income, the prices of number of children, contraceptives, child schooling, and consumption of goods. Demand functions are constructed from maximizing the utility function subject to the budget constraint. Data constitute 40% of the total districts and 50% of the rural population. The empirical specification of the linear model and variable description are provided. Other explanatory variables included are adult educational attainment; % of scheduled castes and tribes and % Muslim; and % rural population. Estimation methods are described and justification is provided for the use of ordinary least squares and fixed effects methods. The results of the cross sectional analysis reveal that own-program effects of family planning and primary health centers reduced family size in 1971 and 81. The increase in secondary school enrollment is evidenced in only 1971. There is a significant effect of family planning (FP) clinics on the demand for surviving children only in 1971. The presence of a seconary school in a village reduces the demand for children in both years. Primary health centers (PHC) and hospitals in a village only encourage boys and girls schooling in 1981. Doubling the number of PHCs/1000 population would reduce the total fertility rate from 4.05 to 3.85. Doubling secondary schools alone would reduce the total fertility rate to 3.75. A 12% decline in fertility or a 20% decrease in populaiton growth would be realized with this doubling. Promotion of female higher education would reduce family size and increase the schooling of females, to equalize the enrollments between the sexes. Muslim population increases fertility and reduces schooling for both sexes. The panel results suggest that the effects of hospitals are overstated cross sectionally, and the effects of FP and secondary schools are understated. Both analyses showed increases in schools to improve female educational attainment.

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