This chapter is organized as follows. Section 2 begins with some forecasting terminology followed by preliminary details concerning the empirical analysis and the six prototype inflation forecasting models that will be used in Section 3 as a guide to the literature. Section 3 presents a survey of the literature on Phillips curve forecasts from 1993–2008. Section 4 undertakes a quantitative summary of the literature review in Section 3 by considering the pseudo out-of-sample performance of a range of inflation forecasting models using a single consistent data set. The focus is on activity-based inflation forecasting models. If the relative performance of Phillips curve forecasts has been episodic, Section 5 addresses the question of whether it is possible to characterize what makes for a successful or unsuccessful episode. Two commentaries on the preceding study are also provided at the end of the chapter.
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