Population Change and Economic Development: What Have We Learned from the East Asia Experience?

Abstract

The twentieth century was a period of unprecedented demographic change. The global population increased nearly fourfold, growing from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 6 billion in 2000 (Cohen 1995, App. 2, 400–401; UN 1998). Population growth rates accelerated, particularly in the developing world, during the first part of the century, reaching a peak in the late 1960s. The response to rapid population growth was also unprecedented. Motivated by concerns about the environmental and economic effects of population growth, the United Nations, bilateral foreign aid agencies, multilateral institutions, and private foundations invested billions of dollars in population programs. Many developing-country governments, especially in Asia, vigorously pursued policies aimed at slowing population growth. The countries of East Asia were among the first and most active proponents of population policy.2 Beginning in the 1960s, many East Asian developing countries abandoned pronatalist policies, identified population stabilization as a national development objective, and adopted comprehensive programs intended to slow population growth. At first glance, the East Asian experience appears to provide strong support for the value of population stabilization policies. Childbearing and population growth rates dropped more rapidly there than in any other region of 1 University of Hawaii at Manoa and the East-West Center, amason@hawaii.edu. This paper summarizes a

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