Uncertainty and the Taylor rule in a simple model of the Euro-area economy

Gert Peersman · Frank R. Smets

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Economic theories and models European Monetary and Fiscal Policies

Abstract

This paper explores the Taylor rule -- defined as an instrument rule linking the central bank's policy rate to the current inflation rate and the output gap -- as a benchmark for analysing monetary policy in the euro area. First, it presents evidence that interest rates in Germany and the euro area can be described by a Taylor rule with interest rate smoothing.

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1993Discretion versus policy rules in practice 1998Monetary policy rules in practice 1997Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets 1967Uncertainty and the effectiveness of policy 1975Analysis and control of dynamic economic systems 1999The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank 1994The Economics of Monetary Integration.1994Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable

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2005Targeting Inflation with a Role for Money 2004Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Euro Area 2022Unveiling the monetary policy rule in the Euro-area 2016Taylor Rules for the Euro Area: The Issue of Real-Time Data 1999Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy: Defining and Maintaining Price Stability 2001Targeting inflation with a prominent role for money

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