Devaluation, Money, and Nontraded Goods

Rudiger W. Dornbusch

269 citations0/0 files storedAmerican Economic Review

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Abstract

This paper develops a approach to the theory of currency devaluation.1 The approach is monetary in several respects. The role of the real balance effect is emphasized and a distinction is drawn between the relative prices of goods, the exchange rate and the price of money in terms of goods. Furthermore, money is treated as a capital asset so that the expenditure effects induced by a change are spread out over time and depend on the preferred rate of adjustment of real balances.2 The latter aspect gives rise to the analytical distinction between impact and long-run effects of a devaluation. The first part of this paper develops a one-commodity and two-country model of devaluation. The simplicity of that structure is chosen quite deliberately to emphasize the aspect of the problem as opposed to the derivative effects that arise from induced changes in relative commodity prices. Trade is viewed as the exchange of goods for money or a means of redistributing the world supply of assets. A devaluation is shown to give rise to a change in the level of trade and the terms of trade, the price of money in terms of goods. In the second part the implications of the existence of nontraded goods are investigated, and induced changes in the relative prices of home goods enter the analysis.

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1998Another look at the role of the industrial structure of markets for international diversification strategies1We are especially grateful to Pat Casey and Virge Cavalli at Dow Jones for providing the Dow Jones World Stock Index data and for their assistance with numerous queries. We gratefully acknowledge the comments of Geert Bekaert, William Brigham, Shane Corwin, Steve Foerster, Jeff Harris, Steve Heston, Ajay Khorana, David Mayers, John Persons, René Stulz, and particularly, the referee (Geert Rouwenhorst) and editor (John Long). We also thank participants at the University of Alberta, University of Toronto and Ohio State University, the 1996 UBC Global Investment Conference (Whistler), 1996 International Finance Conference (Georgia Tech), 1996 Western Finance Association Conference, and 1996 Financial Management Association Conference for helpful suggestions. Karolyi thanks the Dice Center for Financial Economics and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada for financial support.1 1977Price Behavior in the Light of Balance of Payments Theories 2006On the Yuan: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate 1976Recent developments in the theory of inflation and unemployment 1984Asset Markets, Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments 1979The Effects of Devaluation on the Trade Balance and the Balance of Payments: Some New Results 1996Another Look at the Role of the Industrial Structure of Markets for International Diversification Strategies 1983Real exchange rates under alternative nominal exchange-rate systems

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