Macroeconomic behavior during periods of speculative pressure or realignment: evidence from Pacific Basin economies

Abstract

This paper uses nonparametric tests to provide a description of the \\"stylized facts\\" associated with episodes of speculative pressure in foreign exchange markets in Pacific Basin Economies and to see whether these \\"stylized facts\\" appear to be broadly consistent with the alternative explanations for such episodes suggested in the theoretical literature. ; The empirical results are mixed, but some are nonetheless suggestive. Larger budget deficits and growth in central bank domestic credit appear to be associated with episodes of depreciation rather than episodes of appreciation or periods of tranquility, indicating that unusually expansionary or contractionary policies may contribute to speculative pressures in foreign exchange markets. There also is some evidence that episodes of speculative pressure may arise when economic conditions make it costly for the government to maintain a stable exchange rate.

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