Bounded Perception and Learning How to Decide

Abstract

The profitability of a decision (or action) is often dependent on the occurrence of a phenomenon, say drill for oil only when it is indeed there or invest only when the market is favorable. So the decision maker aims to coordinate his decisions with the occurrence of this phenomenon. However whether or not the phenomenon occurs is usually not revealed until after the decision is made. Hence the outcome of the decision is very much dependent on how well the decision maker can forecast the occurrence of the phenomenon. For this he evaluates the present circumstances and compares this with what he knows about what determines the occurrence of the phenomenon. The process of learning the circumstances surrounding a phenomenon in preparation of such a (critical) decision is the subject of this paper.

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