The Effect of Police on Crime: New Evidence from U.S. Cities, 1960-2010

Aaron J. Chalfin · Justin McCrary

65 citations0/0 files storedNational Bureau of Economic Research

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Policing Practices and Perceptions Crime Patterns and Interventions Law, Economics, and Judicial Systems

Abstract

We argue that the key impediment to accurate measurement of the effect of police on crime is not necessarily simultaneity bias, but bias due to mismeasurement of police.Using a new panel data set on crime in medium to large U.S. cities over 1960-2010, we obtain measurement error corrected estimates of the police elasticity of the cost-weighted sum of crimes of roughly -0.5.The estimates confirm a controversial finding from the previous literature that police reduce violent crime more so than property crime.

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2001Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data 1968Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach 1988The Theory of Industrial Organization 1954The Pure Theory of Public Expenditure 1999The Causal Effect of Education on Earnings 2018An Introduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation 2000The Economic Theory of Public Enforcement of Law 1986The Existence of Equilibrium in Discontinuous Economic Games, I: Theory

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