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A decision-by-sampling account of decision under risk

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies

Abstract

Abstract This chapter outlines a possible extension of Stewart et al.'s (2006) decision by sampling theory, to account for how people integrate probability and value information in considering ‘gambles’. The resulting account provides a theory of decision-under-risk that is directly comparable to prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky,1979) and its competitors (e.g. Brandstatter et al. 2006). The model correctly predicts the direction of preference for all 16 prospects from the Kahneman and Tversky (1979) data set and produces a high correlation between choice proportions and model predictions.

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References

1979Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk 1988Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk 1992Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty 1953Le Comportement de l'Homme Rationnel devant le Risque: Critique des Postulats et Axiomes de l'Ecole Americaine 1982Regret Theory: An Alternative Theory of Rational Choice Under Uncertainty 1979The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making.1993Decision field theory: A dynamic-cognitive approach to decision making in an uncertain environment.2001Naive Diversification Strategies in Defined Contribution Saving Plans

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