Conducting Monte Carlo Analysis with Spreadsheet Programs

Abstract

Monte Carlo analysis has been shown to be a powerful tool for evaluating confidence limits and probability distributions for values calculated during the analysis of vehicle accidents. Using this tool has generally required specialized software. This paper presents a method of using the tools provided with most simple spreadsheet programs to conduct Monte Carlo analysis with both evenly distributed and normally distributed variables for cases where the equations can be expressed in closed form. The accuracy one can expect given a particular number of trials is discussed. Example analyses using both even-probability and normal-probability variables are shown.

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