EVALUATING ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF ENVIRONMENTALLY SUSTAINABLE SCENARIOS BY A BACKCASTING APPROACH WITH ESCOT (ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABILITY POLICIES OF TRANSPORT)

Abstract

This paper describes how the ESCOT (Model for economic assessment of sustainability policies of transport) is to describe a development path towards sustainable transport in Germany and to assess its economic impacts. The baseline of the ESCOT modeling approach is twofold: A System Dynamics Methodology is applied for integrated modeling of transportation scenarios and a Macroeconomic Model is developed for the economic assessment. The framework for sustainable transport is prescribed by severe environmental goals, which require sophisticated changes in the treatment of the environment. As major driving forces for these changes we have to consider e.g. the development of population, the way of living and housing, car ownership, consumption and other macroeconomic variables. In addition to the complex interrelationships between these driving forces the investigated scenarios cover a long period of time. Complexity of considered systems and long-term time horizon for the assessment suggest applying a System Dynamics Model (SDM).

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