Heterogeneity in Euro Area Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Some Stylized Facts and Implications

Abstract

Aggregate measures of inflation expectations mask heterogeneity among consumers. According to the theoretical and empirical literature, expectations may differ due to different information sets and “models” used by individuals. European Commission Consumer Survey data confirm considerable heterogeneity in inflation expectations over time, across countries and across demographic groups. Consistent with findings according to which financial literacy is an important determinant of inflation expectations heterogeneity, our econometric estimates show that education and income seem to play a more important role than age and gender. However, their effect on heterogeneity is nonlinear. We also find evidence of strong country-specific idiosyncrasies in the formation of inflation expectations. Overall, while showing some common tendencies, inflation expectations in the euro area continue to vary across countries and demographic groups as regards their level, driving factors and evolution over time. Employing “targeted” or “multi-tiered” communication strategies for different demographic groups and within the various euro area countries might indeed help “focus, ” or “anchor, ” inflation expectations around a level in line with the Eurosystem’s definition of price stability.

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