Approved Methods and Algorithms for DoD Risk-Based Explosives Siting

Abstract

The Safety Assessment for Explosives Risk (SAFER) model was developed to provide a more comprehensive assessment of the overall risk associated with explosives operations and storage. The SAFER model calculates risk in terms of the statistical expectation for loss of life from an explosives event. Three components are multiplied to estimate annual maximum probability of fatality, P(f), and the expected fatalities, E(f): (1) the probability of an explosives event, P(e), (2) the probability of a fatality given an event, P(f/e), and (3) the average exposure of an individual, E(p). The purpose of this technical paper is to present the underlying logic and algorithms used in risk-based explosives safety analyses, as implemented in the Safety Assessment for Explosives Risk (SAFER) Version 3.0 model.

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