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The present report describes a program of research whose goal is the development and eventual validation of a method for predicting training device effectiveness. As the lead publication in the series, this report presents a preliminary model for the prediction of one of the most important aspects of training effectiveness--transfer of training. In developing the preliminary model, every attempt has been made to examine and, if possible, to build upon previous efforts. Toward this end, several different kinds of literature potentially bearing on the prediction of device effectiveness have been exhaustively reviewed, reduced, and analyzed. Previous methods and models dealing with the design or evaluation of training programs were examined. General theories of transfer were studied as were the specific constructs believed to mediate transfer. Finally, a host of substantive issues were examined, particularly in terms of empirical data on specific variables and their impact on transfer. The report describes and discusses this information and, when appropriate, indicates its incorporation into the model. In the following four sections of the report the results of the literature survey are described together with implications for a preliminary model for use in predicting training effectiveness.
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