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Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative
16 references·16 citing·37 second hopsampled
Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative (2015)Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservati…Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning (2009)Effective forecasting and jud…Intuitions About Combining Opinions: Misappreciation of the Averaging Principle (2006)Intuitions About Combining Op…Exponential smoothing: The state of the art—Part II (2006)Exponential smoothing: The st…How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects?: The Case of Transportation (2005)How (In)accurate Are Demand F…Size matters: the standard error of regressions in the American Economic Review (2004)Size matters: the standard er…Principles of Forecasting (2001)Principles of ForecastingExpert Opinions in Forecasting: The Role of the Delphi Technique (2001)Expert Opinions in Forecastin…The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications (2000)The M3-Competition: results, …Relationships Among Attitudes, Behavioral Intentions, and Behavior (1993)Relationships Among Attitudes…Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons (1992)Error measures for generalizi…Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography (1989)Combining forecasts: A review…Forecasting Trends in Time Series (1985)Forecasting Trends in Time Se…Exponential smoothing: The state of the art (1985)Exponential smoothing: The st…Counterfactual reasoning and accuracy in predicting personal events. (1985)Counterfactual reasoning and …The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition (1982)The accuracy of extrapolation…The Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses (1965)The Method of Multiple Workin…A survey of human judgement and quantitative forecasting methods (2021)A survey of human judgement a…Generalizing the Theta method for automatic forecasting (2020)Generalizing the Theta method…Economic growth and environmental degradation: evidence from the US case environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis with application of decomposition (2020)Economic growth and environme…From Data to Causes II: Comparing Approaches to Panel Data Analysis (2019)From Data to Causes II: Compa…The human factor in supply chain forecasting: A systematic review (2018)The human factor in supply ch…Integrating human judgement into quantitative forecasting methods: A review (2018)Integrating human judgement i…Combining forecasts: Performance and coherence (2018)Combining forecasts: Performa…Scenario-based strategizing: Advancing the applicability in strategists' teams (2017)Scenario-based strategizing: …Retailers' and manufacturers' price-promotion decisions: Intuitive or evidence-based? (2017)Retailers' and manufacturers'…Leveraging Comparables for New Product Sales Forecasting (2017)Leveraging Comparables for Ne…Forecasts or fortune-telling: When are expert judgements of safety risk valid? (2017)Forecasts or fortune-telling:…Forecasting and uncertainty: A survey (2016)Forecasting and uncertainty: …Simple versus complex selection rules for forecasting many time series (2015)Simple versus complex selecti…Limitations of Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging for forecasting social science problems (2015)Limitations of Ensemble Bayes…Improving forecasts using equally weighted predictors (2015)Improving forecasts using equ…German Election Forecasting: Comparing and Combining Methods for 2013 (2015)German Election Forecasting: …Expert judgment: Some necessary conditions and an example. (1974)25 years of time series forecasting (2006)Chapter 4 Forecast Combinations (2006)Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)Heuristics and Biases (2002)Megaprojects and Risk (2003)From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right (2006)Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets built--and what we can do about it (2009)Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development (2014)Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages (1960)Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages (2004)A hybrid method of exponential smoothing and recurrent neural networks for time series forecasting (2019)Artificial intelligence applications in supply chain management (2021)Forecasting: theory and practice (2022)Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (1977)Forecasting Economic Time Series (2000)Forecasting Time Series With Complex Seasonal Patterns Using Exponential Smoothing (2011)The Combination of Forecasts (1969)Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (1977)Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography (1990)Forecasting methods and applications (1993)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)The Delphi technique: a method for testing complex and multifaceted topics (2009)Using Delphi technique to build consensus in practice (2014)Improving the practical application of the Delphi method in group-based judgment: A six-step prescription for a well-founded and defensible process (2019)Statistical and Machine Learning forecasting methods: Concerns and ways forward (2018)Recurrent Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting: Current status and future directions (2020)A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods (2002)Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts (2011)A new metric of absolute percentage error for intermittent demand forecasts (2016)Standard Cross-Cultural Sample (1969)Competing models of entrepreneurial intentions (2000)Structural Equation Modeling in Marketing: Some Practical Reminders (2008)Consensus measurement in Delphi studies (2012)Rethinking Partial Least Squares Path Modeling: In Praise of Simple Methods (2012)
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References

  • 1989Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography2,170 cited
  • 2000The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications1,700 cited
  • 1982The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition1,465 cited
  • 1985Exponential smoothing: The state of the art1,461 cited
  • 1992Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons1,400 cited
  • 2001Principles of Forecasting1,178 cited
  • 1965The Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses1,071 cited
  • 2006Exponential smoothing: The state of the art—Part II953 cited
  • 2001Expert Opinions in Forecasting: The Role of the Delphi Technique845 cited
  • 2005How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects?: The Case of Transportation731 cited
  • 1993Relationships Among Attitudes, Behavioral Intentions, and Behavior682 cited
  • 2009Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning447 cited
  • 1985Counterfactual reasoning and accuracy in predicting personal events.430 cited
  • 2004Size matters: the standard error of regressions in the American Economic Review408 cited
  • 2006Intuitions About Combining Opinions: Misappreciation of the Averaging Principle

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407 cited
  • 1985Forecasting Trends in Time Series399 cited
  • Cited by

    • 2018The human factor in supply chain forecasting: A systematic review146 cited
    • 2019From Data to Causes II: Comparing Approaches to Panel Data Analysis126 cited
    • 2018Integrating human judgement into quantitative forecasting methods: A review107 cited
    • 2015Simple versus complex selection rules for forecasting many time series92 cited
    • 2020Economic growth and environmental degradation: evidence from the US case environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis with application of decomposition85 cited
    • 2021A survey of human judgement and quantitative forecasting methods78 cited
    • 2017Forecasts or fortune-telling: When are expert judgements of safety risk valid?70 cited
    • 2017Scenario-based strategizing: Advancing the applicability in strategists' teams64 cited
    • 2017Leveraging Comparables for New Product Sales Forecasting64 cited
    • 2015German Election Forecasting: Comparing and Combining Methods for 201356 cited
    • 2015Limitations of Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging for forecasting social science problems54 cited
    • 2015Improving forecasts using equally weighted predictors49 cited
    • 2020Generalizing the Theta method for automatic forecasting49 cited
    • 2016Forecasting and uncertainty: A survey48 cited
    • 2018Combining forecasts: Performance and coherence48 cited
    • 2017Retailers' and manufacturers' price-promotion decisions: Intuitive or evidence-based?47 cited