REPORT ON A LONG-RANGE FORECASTING STUDY,

Abstract

Abstract : This report describes an experimental trend-predicting exercise covering a period extending as far as fifty years into the future. The experiment used a sequence of questionnaires to elicit predictions from individual experts in six broad areas: scientific breakthroughs, population growth, automation, space progress, probability and prevention of war, and future weapon systems. Results of the experiment illuminate a number of points: the contents of the predictions themselves, the bases on which respondents claimed their predictions were made, the spread of expert views, the convergence of views following data feedback, the expert's critiques of each other's views, and not least of all, the weaknesses of the method and the possible means for improving it.

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