Assessment and evaluation of subjective probability distributions

Staël von Holstein · S Carl-Axel

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Multi-Criteria Decision Making Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Abstract

Most managerial and other decisions are made without complete knowledge of the consequences involved. This study shows how a person faced with a problem of decision under uncertainty should proceed to find a course of action which is consistent with his judgement and preferences. He judges the uncertainty of future outcomes and quantifies his beliefs in probabilities. The emphasis is on various techniques for assessing subjective probability distributions. The way probability assessments and assessors could be evaluated is also discussed. The theoretical presentation is supplemented by some experimental studies, two of which are related to price changes in the stock market and weather forecasts.

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