Monetary Policy and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates

Abstract

•analysts to use the prices of crude-oil-futures contracts to interpret developments in the global crude oil market. Based on recent research, this article discusses three ways that oil-futures prices can improve our understanding of current conditions and future prospects in this important international commodity market. First, the response of the oil-futures curve can • be used to identify the persistence of oil-price shocks and to obtain an indicator of the rate at which a given shock will diminish. Second, the spread between the current futures • price and the spot price of oil can be interpreted as an indicator of the precautionary demand for oil. Third, oil-futures prices can be used to forecast

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