O padrão dos ciclos de crescimento da economia brasileira: 1947-20031

Abstract

Partindo da abordagem Minskyana de instabilidade financeira e da abordagem neo-schumpeteriana sobre a relacao entre o Sistema Nacional de Inovacoes (SNI) e a competitividade das economias, chega-se a um padrao dos ciclos de crescimento das economias com sistema financeiro deficiente e cujo SNI apresenta pequeno desenvolvimento relativo. Segundo tal padrao, os ciclos de crescimento dessas economias iniciam-se a partir da estruturacao de arranjos financeiros de financiamento e sustentacao do crescimento economico e terminam com crises cambiais e desestruturacao desses arranjos. Conclui-se que os ciclos de crescimento da economia brasileira entre 1947 e 2003 apresentam elevada aderencia em relacao ao citado padrao.AbstractBy using the Minskyan approach of financial instability and the neo-schumpeterian approach to the relationship between the National System of Innovation (NSI) and economic competitiveness, a standard was obtained for growth cycles of economies with deficient financial system and whose NSI shows deficiencies when compared with the NSI of the developed countries. According to this standard, growth cycles begin with the structuring of financial arrangements and end with exchange crises and collapse of those arrangements. It was concluded that growth cycles in the Brazilian economy between 1947 and 2003 closely followed the above-mentioned standard.Key words: External vulnerability. Financial arrangements. Brazilian economic growth

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