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Choice of Sample Split in Out-of-Sample Forecast Evaluation
16 references·16 citing·39 second hopsampled
Choice of Sample Split in Out-of-Sample Forecast Evaluation (2012)Choice of Sample Split in Out-of-Sample F…Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy (2009)Out-of-Sample Equity Premium …Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average? (2007)Predicting Excess Stock Retur…A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction (2007)A Comprehensive Look at The E…Efficient tests of stock return predictability☆ (2006)Efficient tests of stock retu…Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality (2006)Asymptotics for out of sample…Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models (2006)Approximately normal tests fo…In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use? (2005)In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Te…A Test for Superior Predictive Ability (2005)A Test for Superior Predictiv…A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series (2005)A comparison of direct and it…Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors (2002)Forecasting Using Principal C…Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models (2001)Tests of equal forecast accur…Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability (1996)Asymptotic Inference about Pr…Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance (1995)Predictability of Stock Retur…Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends (1988)Stock Prices, Earnings, and E…Dividend yields and expected stock returns (1988)Dividend yields and expected …Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets (1986)Predicting returns in the sto…More attention and better volatility forecast accuracy: How does war attention affect stock volatility predictability? (2023)More attention and better vol…Deep belief network for gold price forecasting (2020)Deep belief network for gold …Cash conversion cycle and aggregate stock returns (2020)Cash conversion cycle and agg…Forecasting Methods in Finance (2018)Forecasting Methods in FinanceFactor Based Commodity Investing (2018)Factor Based Commodity Invest…Shipping investor sentiment and international stock return predictability (2016)Shipping investor sentiment a…International volatility risk and Chinese stock return predictability (2016)International volatility risk…Equity premium prediction: Are economic and technical indicators unstable? (2016)Equity premium prediction: Ar…Chinese stock market volatility and the role of U.S. economic variables (2016)Chinese stock market volatili…Market Timing with Moving Averages: Anatomy and Performance of Trading Rules (2015)Market Timing with Moving Ave…The real-life performance of market timing with moving average and time-series momentum rules (2014)The real-life performance of …Forecasting a long memory process subject to structural breaks (2013)Forecasting a long memory pro…Do DSGE Models Forecast More Accurately Out-Of-Sample than VAR Models? (2013)Do DSGE Models Forecast More …Predictability of the Simple Technical Trading Rules: An Out-of-Sample Test (2012)Predictability of the Simple …Money–Income Granger-Causality in Quantiles (2012)Money–Income Granger-Causalit…Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests (2012)Comparing Predictive Accuracy…Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case (1969)The Econometrics of Financial Markets (1997)The Econometrics of Financial Markets (2012)Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns (2014)Empirical Asset Pricing via Machine Learning (2020)CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK* (1964)Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (1977)Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root (1981)An analysis of intertemporal and cross-sectional determinants of earnings response coefficients (1989)The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums (1991)Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia (2009)Comparing Predictive Accuracy (1994)Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors (1997)Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability (2006)Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators (2014)Forecasting: theory and practice (2022)Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes (2002)A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration (2004)Measuring Uncertainty (2015)The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. (1936)Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work (1970)EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETS: A REVIEW OF THEORY AND EMPIRICAL WORK* (1970)Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets (1990)Efficient Capital Markets: II (1991)The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors (1988)Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds (1989)Presidential Address: Discount Rates (2011)Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds (1993)By Force of Habit: A Consumption‐Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior (1999)Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns (2014)Manager sentiment and stock returns (2018)Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends? (1980)Does the Stock Market Overreact? (1985)The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors (1986)Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing (2001)The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics (2003)Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management (1998)A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)? (2005)Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment (2015)
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References

  • 2007A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction3,984 cited
  • 1988Dividend yields and expected stock returns3,574 cited
  • 2002Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors2,990 cited
  • 2007Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?2,916 cited
  • 2006Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models2,513 cited
  • 1988Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends2,457 cited
  • 1986Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets1,715 cited
  • 2009Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy1,684 cited
  • 1996Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability1,415 cited
  • 2005A Test for Superior Predictive Ability1,227 cited
  • 2001Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models1,178 cited
  • 1995Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance1,034 cited
  • 2006Efficient tests of stock return predictability☆992 cited
  • 2005A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series808 cited
  • 2005In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?

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756 cited
  • 2006Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality697 cited
  • Cited by

    • 2020Deep belief network for gold price forecasting84 cited
    • 2012Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests84 cited
    • 2018Forecasting Methods in Finance69 cited
    • 2023More attention and better volatility forecast accuracy: How does war attention affect stock volatility predictability?66 cited
    • 2016International volatility risk and Chinese stock return predictability55 cited
    • 2018Factor Based Commodity Investing54 cited
    • 2012Money–Income Granger-Causality in Quantiles52 cited
    • 2016Chinese stock market volatility and the role of U.S. economic variables52 cited
    • 2016Shipping investor sentiment and international stock return predictability51 cited
    • 2016Equity premium prediction: Are economic and technical indicators unstable?49 cited
    • 2012Predictability of the Simple Technical Trading Rules: An Out-of-Sample Test48 cited
    • 2013Do DSGE Models Forecast More Accurately Out-Of-Sample than VAR Models?47 cited
    • 2014The real-life performance of market timing with moving average and time-series momentum rules45 cited
    • 2013Forecasting a long memory process subject to structural breaks33 cited
    • 2015Market Timing with Moving Averages: Anatomy and Performance of Trading Rules31 cited
    • 2020Cash conversion cycle and aggregate stock returns28 cited