The Chilean Business Cycles Through the Lens of a Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

Abstract

This paper uses an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with nominal and real rigidities, to describe the sources of business cycle fluctuations in Chile. Our results show that foreign shocks and domestic supply shock account for a large share of output fluctuations over the last 20 years. Relatively tight domestic monetary conditions have contributed to contain inflationary pressures arising from other shocks, namely a slowdown in productivity by mid 90s. Foreign factors are also behind the large swings exhibited by the real exchange rate, although a monetary contraction in 1998 explains part of the delayed adjustment of the exchange rate in response to effects of the Asian crisis. The tight monetary policy around 1998 also contributes to the slow recovery of the employment afterwards.

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