Determinants of expatriate workers' remittances in North Africa and Europe

Abstract

The authors review the theoretical literature on the determinants of international workers'remittances and then posit an empirical model that accounts for demographic, portfolio, and macroeconomic factors that - together with special incentive policies - determine official remittances. They estimated the model using data from five major labor-exporting countries of North Africa and Europe: Morocco, Portugal, Tunisia, Turkey, and the former Yugoslavia. The econometric results strongly corroborate the model's predictions and reveal interesting policy implications. In planning for the future growth of remittances, labor-exporting countries should explicitly take into consideration the history of migration, since an aging labor force abroad will be less inclined to remit. Labor-exporting countries should also account for the economic prospects of the major labor-receiving countries and for the geographical distribution of their migrant labor. The authors'results show that remittances are significantly affected by economic policies in the home (labor-exporting) countries. Special incentive schemes cannot substitute for a stable, credible macroeconomic policy.

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