Ex Ante Real Long-Term Interest Rates and U.S. Federal Budget Deficits: Preliminary Error-Correction Evidence, 1971-1991

Richard J. Cebula · Ira S. Saltz

19 citations0/0 files storedEconomia Internazionale / International Economics

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Fiscal Policies and Political Economy Politics, Economics, and Education Policy

Abstract

This study uses causality tests to determine the direction of causality between U.S. federal budget deficits and ex ante real long-term interest rates. For the 1971-1991 period, it is found that the ex ante real long-term interest rate may cause the structural budget deficit.

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2003Budget deficits and real interest rates: Updated empirical evidence on causality 2005Recent empirical evidence on the impact of the primary budget deficit on nominal longer term treasury note interest rate yields

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