O modelo de Harrod: natureza das expectativas de longo prazo, instabilidade e não-linearidade

Abstract

As diferentes versoes do modelo de Harrod sempre foram objeto de controversias e de interpretacoes erroneas: pretendo mostrar como Harrod, a partir de 1938, fornece elementos para construir uma analise dinâmica, utilizando o instrumental de Keynes. Isto implica fornecer uma explicacao endogena da instabilidade, da existencia de ponto de reversao e das modalidades de regulacao do sistema. Mostrarei como Harrod transpoe, em termos dinâmicos, a analise estatica realizada por Keynes na Teoria Geral. Numa primeira parte, estudarei as relacoes que existem, na Teoria Geral, entre a Demanda Efetiva, a estabilidade do equilibrio e a natureza das expectativas. Numa segunda parte, demonstrarei como, a partir de uma concepcao nao linear dos processos economicos, Harrod define varios principios de instabilidade, assim como determinadas modalidades de regulacao do sistema.Abstract The different versions of Harrod’s growth model have always been the subject of controversy and mistaken interpretations: in this paper, we intend to show how Harrod, from 1938 onwards, provides the elements to build a dynamical analysis using Keynes’ theoretical tools: this means to provide an endogenous explanation for instability, for the existence of a reversal point as well as for the modes of regulating the system. It will be shown, also, how Harrod translates, in a dynamical language, Keynes’ static analysis developed in his General Theory. In the first section, we investigate the relations among effective demand, the equilibrium’s stability and the nature of expectations as they are presented in the General Theory. In the second section, we explain how, from a non linear conception of economic processes, Harrod defines many instability principles along with some modalities of regulating the system.Keywords: Instability. Path dependence. Expectations

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