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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

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Financial Markets and Investment Strategies Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Literary, Cultural, Historical Analysis

Abstract

Just as coincidence can be confused with causality, so the lucky idiot can be confused with the skilled investor. The realities of randomness and probability almost guarantee that, out of a large pool of random investors, a Warren Buffett will emerge just by luck. Taleb (the founder of Empirica L.L.

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