Real wages, inflation and labour productivity in Australia

Saten Kumar · Don J. Webber · Geoff Perry

56 citations0/0 files storedApplied Economics

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Labor market dynamics and wage inequality Economic Growth and Productivity

Abstract

This article presents an analysis of real wages, inflation and labour productivity interrelationships using cointegration, Granger causality and, most importantly, structural change tests. Applications of tests to Australian data over the 1965 to 2007 period corroborate the presence of a structural break in 1985 and show that a 1% increase in manufacturing sector real wages led to an increase in manufacturing sector productivity of between 0.5% and 0.8%. Comparable estimates for the effect of inflation on manufacturing sector productivity have limited statistical significance. Granger causality test results suggest that real wages and inflation both Granger cause productivity in the long run.

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References

1987Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing 1988Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors 1990MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE ON COINTEGRATION — WITH APPLICATIONS TO THE DEMAND FOR MONEY 1991Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models 1996Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts 1981Autoregressive modelling and money-income causality detection 1996PRACTITIONERS CORNER: Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts 1999Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence

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