Economic Risk Factors and Commercial Real Estate Returns

David Curtis Ling · Andy Naranjo

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Financial Markets and Investment Strategies Housing Market and Economics Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling

Abstract

A great deal of research has focused on the linkages between stock and bond market returns and macroeconomic events such as fluctuations in interest rates, inflation rates and industrial production. Although the comovements of real estate and other asset prices suggests that these same systematic risk factors are likely to be priced in real estate markets, no study has formally addressed this issue. This study identifies the growth rate in real estate per capita consumption, the real T-bill rate, the term structure of interest rates, and unexpected inflation as fundamental drivers or state that systematically affect real estate returns. The finding of a consistently significant risk premium on consumption has important ramifications for the vast literature that has examined the (risk-adjusted) performance of real estate, for it suggests that prior findings of significant abnormal returns (either positive or negative) that have ignored consumption are potentially biased by an omitted variables problem. The results also have important implications for dynamic asset allocation strategies which involve the predictability of real estate returns using economic data.

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References

1964CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK*1992The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns 1973Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests 1976The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing 1975THE VALUATION OF RISK ASSETS AND THE SELECTION OF RISKY INVESTMENTS IN STOCK PORTFOLIOS AND CAPITAL BUDGETS**This paper is another in a series of interrelated theoretical and statistical studies of corporate financial and investment policies being made under grants from the Rockefeller Foundation, and more recently the Ford Foundation, to the Harvard Business School. The generous support for this work is most gratefully acknowledged. The author is also much indebted to his colleagues Professors Bishop, Christenson, Kahr, Raiffa, and (especially) Schlaifer, for extensive discussion and commentary on an earlier draft of this paper; but responsibility for any errors or imperfections remains strictly his own.[Professor Sharpe's paper, “Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk” (Journal of Finance, September 1964) appeared after this paper was in final form and on its way to the printers. My first section, which parallels the first half of his paper (with corresponding conclusions), sets the algebraic framework for sections II, III and VI, (which have no counterpart in his paper) and for section IV on the equilibrium prices of risk assets, concerning which our results differ significantly for reasons which will be explored elsewhere. Sharpe does not take up the capital budgeting problem developed in section V below.]1973An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model 1981The relationship between return and market value of common stocks 1986Economic Forces and the Stock Market

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