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Aggregating multiple probability intervals to improve their calibration
16 references·3 citing·41 second hop
Aggregating multiple probability intervals to improve their calibration (2014)Aggregating multiple probability interval…When is a crowd wise? (2014)When is a crowd wise?Identifying Expertise to Extract the Wisdom of Crowds (2014)Identifying Expertise to Extr…The Wisdom of Many in One Mind (2009)The Wisdom of Many in One MindReducing Overconfidence in the Interval Judgments of Experts (2009)Reducing Overconfidence in th…The trouble with overconfidence. (2008)The trouble with overconfiden…Overconfidence in interval estimates: What does expertise buy you? (2008)Overconfidence in interval es…The naïve intuitive statistician: A naïve sampling model of intuitive confidence intervals. (2007)The naïve intuitive statistic…Intuitions About Combining Opinions: Misappreciation of the Averaging Principle (2006)Intuitions About Combining Op…The wisdom of crowds: why the many are smarter than the few and how collective wisdom shapes business, economies, societies and nations (2004)The wisdom of crowds: why the…Overconfidence in Interval Estimates. (2004)Overconfidence in Interval Es…The effects of averaging subjective probability estimates between and within judges. (2000)The effects of averaging subj…Graininess of judgment under uncertainty: An accuracy-informativeness trade-off. (1995)Graininess of judgment under …Judgment in Managerial Decision Making (1986)Judgment in Managerial Decisi…State of the Art—Encoding Subjective Probabilities: A Psychological and Psychometric Review (1983)State of the Art—Encoding Sub…Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 (1982)Calibration of probabilities:…A progress report on the training of probability assessors (1982)A progress report on the trai…Combining probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States (2021)Combining probabilistic forec…Combining prediction intervals in the M4 competition (2019)Combining prediction interval…Combining Interval Forecasts (2017)Combining Interval ForecastsThe Principles of Psychology (1891)The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism (1970)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Ethical Decision Making by Individuals in Organizations: An Issue-Contingent Model (1991)Differences between entrepreneurs and managers in large organizations: Biases and heuristics in strategic decision-making (1997)Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree. (2009)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Introduction to Meta‐Analysis (2009)A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol (2017)Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them (2019)Ask the Experts: What Should Be on an IoT Privacy and Security Label? (2020)Introduction to Meta‐Analysis (2021)Statistical principles in experimental design. (1962)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Gender and Competition (2011)Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science (2012)Constructive Consumer Choice Processes (1998)Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (2004)The gateway belief model: A large-scale replication (2019)Will Humans-in-the-Loop Become Borgs? Merits and Pitfalls of Working with AI (2021)Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review (2022)Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment. (1983)Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? (2000)The functions and dysfunctions of hierarchy (2010)Big Data and supply chain management: a review and bibliometric analysis (2016)Culture's Consequences (2018)Forecasting: theory and practice (2022)Society and the Adolescent Self-Image (1965)Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. (1999)Algorithm Aversion: People Erroneously Avoid Algorithms after Seeing Them Err (2014)Resource-rational analysis: Understanding human cognition as the optimal use of limited computational resources (2019)Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors (2000)Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment (2001)Gender Differences in Preferences (2009)Benefits, Adoption Barriers and Myths of Open Data and Open Government (2012)Algorithm appreciation: People prefer algorithmic to human judgment (2019)Delphi Technique in Health Sciences: A Map (2020)Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. (1986)Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability. (1989)How we know--and sometimes misjudge--what others know: Imputing one's own knowledge to others. (1999)
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References

  • 2004The wisdom of crowds: why the many are smarter than the few and how collective wisdom shapes business, economies, societies and nations2,925 cited
  • 2008The trouble with overconfidence.2,347 cited
  • 1986Judgment in Managerial Decision Making2,254 cited
  • 1982Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 19801,966 cited
  • 1982A progress report on the training of probability assessors859 cited
  • 2004Overconfidence in Interval Estimates.508 cited
  • 2006Intuitions About Combining Opinions: Misappreciation of the Averaging Principle407 cited
  • 2014Identifying Expertise to Extract the Wisdom of Crowds363 cited
  • 2009Reducing Overconfidence in the Interval Judgments of Experts351 cited
  • 1983State of the Art—Encoding Subjective Probabilities: A Psychological and Psychometric Review350 cited
  • 1995Graininess of judgment under uncertainty: An accuracy-informativeness trade-off.311 cited
  • 2009The Wisdom of Many in One Mind304 cited
  • 2007The naïve intuitive statistician: A naïve sampling model of intuitive confidence intervals.209 cited
  • 2014When is a crowd wise?184 cited
  • 2008Overconfidence in interval estimates: What does expertise buy you?

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180 cited
  • 2000The effects of averaging subjective probability estimates between and within judges.144 cited
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    • 2017Combining Interval Forecasts59 cited
    • 2021Combining probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States58 cited
    • 2019Combining prediction intervals in the M4 competition47 cited