Parsing Shocks: Real-Time Revisions to Gap and Growth Projections for Canada

Russell Barnett · Sharon Kozicki · Christopher Petrinec

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Global Financial Crisis and Policies Economic Theory and Policy

Abstract

The output gap—the deviation of output from potential output—has played an important role in the conduct of monetary policy in Canada. This article reviews the Bank of Canada’s definition of potential output, as well as the use of the output gap in monetary policy.

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1997Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation 1990Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter 1999Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series 1988Testing for Common Trends 2002The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time 1993Low frequency filtering and real business cycles 2021A Simple Multivariate Filter for the Measurement of Potential Output 2005On suboptimality of the Hodrick–Prescott filter at time series endpoints

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