Forbidden Fruit: Counterfactuals and International Relations

Abstract

Acknowledgments ix PART ONE Chapter One: Making Sense of the World 3 Chapter Two: Counterfactual Thought Experiments 29 PART TWO Chapter Three: Franz Ferdinand Found Alive: World War I Unnecessary 69 Chapter Four: Leadership and the End of the Cold War: Did It Have to End This Way? 103 Coauthored with George W. Breslauer PART THREE Chapter Five: Scholars and Causation 1 137 Coauthored with Philip E. Tetlock Chapter Six: Scholars and Causation 2 166 APPENDIX Experiment 4, Instrument 1: Unmaking American Tragedies 196 Chapter Seven: If Mozart Had Died at Your Age: Psycho-logic versus Statistical Inference 205 Chapter Eight: Heil to the Chief: Sinclair Lewis, Philip Roth, and Fascism 222 Conclusions 259 Notes 287 Index 329

Cite this work

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 103 citations exist upstream.