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The Effectiveness of Simple Decision Heuristics: A Case Study of Experts' Forecasts of the Commercial Success of Early-Stage Ventures
16 references·4 citing·37 second hop
The Effectiveness of Simple Decision Heuristics: A Case Study of Experts' Forecasts of the Commercial Success of Early-Stage Ventures (2011)The Effectiveness of Simple Decision Heur…The Affect Heuristic (2002)The Affect HeuristicHeuristics and Biases (2002)Heuristics and BiasesThe M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications (2000)The M3-Competition: results, …Models of Bounded Rationality (1997)Models of Bounded RationalityReasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality. (1996)Reasoning the fast and frugal…How much information does an expert use? Is it relevant? (1992)How much information does an …Interaction of Judgemental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues & Analysis (1991)Interaction of Judgemental an…The Limits of Scientific Reasoning (1986)The Limits of Scientific Reas…The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making. (1979)The robust beauty of improper…Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)Prospect Theory: An Analysis …Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. (1975)Hindsight is not equal to for…Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…Elimination by aspects: A theory of choice. (1972)Elimination by aspects: A the…A case study of graduate admissions: Application of three principles of human decision making. (1971)A case study of graduate admi…Genesis of popular but erroneous psychodiagnostic observations. (1967)Genesis of popular but errone…Rational choice and the structure of the environment. (1956)Rational choice and the struc…Uncovering project screening heuristics with cognitive task analysis: How do gatekeepers decide which technologies to promote? (2013)Uncovering project screening …An investigation on Fast and Frugal Model for new project screening (2011)An investigation on Fast and …Success factors for eco-innovations and other innovations (2008)Success factors for eco-innov…An Investigation of Fast and Frugal Heuristics for New Product Project Selection (2000)An Investigation of Fast and …The theory of decision making. (1954)A BEHAVIORAL MODEL OF RATIONAL CHOICE (1955)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Belief in the law of small numbers. (1971)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)The Intuitive Psychologist And His Shortcomings: Distortions in the Attribution Process (1977)Culture and systems of thought: Holistic versus analytic cognition. (2001)Individual Choice Behavior: A Theoretical Analysis. (1960)Intransitivity of preferences. (1969)Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment (1971)Features of similarity. (1977)Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation (2001)Construal-level theory of psychological distance. (2010)Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography (1989)25 years of time series forecasting (2006)Statistical and Machine Learning forecasting methods: Concerns and ways forward (2018)Recurrent Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting: Current status and future directions (2020)The theory of planned behavior (1991)Self-Efficacy: The Exercise of Control (1999)Risk as feelings. (2001)A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality. (2003)Gender Differences in Preferences (2009)The expression of the emotions in man and animals. (1872)Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart (1999)Heuristic Decision Making (2010)Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)Development of NASA-TLX (Task Load Index): Results of Empirical and Theoretical Research (1988)Epistemic Injustice (2007)Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. (1983)Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? (2000)Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (2004)Dual-Processing Accounts of Reasoning, Judgment, and Social Cognition (2007)The weirdest people in the world? (2010)Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)Explicating dynamic capabilities: the nature and microfoundations of (sustainable) enterprise performance (2007)
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  • 1979

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The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making.
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  • 2008Success factors for eco-innovations and other innovations20 cited
  • 2013Uncovering project screening heuristics with cognitive task analysis: How do gatekeepers decide which technologies to promote?3 cited
  • 2011An investigation on Fast and Frugal Model for new project screening3 cited
  • 2000An Investigation of Fast and Frugal Heuristics for New Product Project Selection3 cited