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The bond market term premium: what is it, and how can we measure it?
12 references·7 citing·47 second hop
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(2011)Comparing Predictive Accuracy (1994)Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy (2005)Canonical Term‐Structure Models with Observable Factors and the Dynamics of Bond Risk Premia (2008)Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: A no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach (2008)The Design of Fiscal Rules and Forms of Governance in European Union Countries (2009)Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work (1970)EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETS: A REVIEW OF THEORY AND EMPIRICAL WORK* (1970)Long-horizon regressions: theoretical results and applications (2003)The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability (2005)Forecasting stock market returns: The sum of the parts is more than the whole (2011)Stochastic Differential Equations and Diffusion Processes (1983)Basel Committee On Banking Supervision (2010)
this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 2000Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models1,708 cited
  • 2002Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models1,581 cited
  • 1987The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates1,552 cited
  • 2005Bond Risk Premia1,546 cited
  • 2003Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?574 cited
  • 2005An Arbitrage-Free Three-Factor Term Structure Model and the Recent Behavior of Long-Term Yields and Distant-Horizon Forward Rates490 cited
  • 2001Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates439 cited
  • 2005A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term-structure dynamics382 cited
  • 2006Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts170 cited
  • 2006The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence162 cited
  • 2008Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Forecasting107 cited
  • 2004Futures Prices as Risk-adjusted Forecasts of Monetary Policy57 cited

Cited by

  • 2008The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: Lessons from a parametric term structure model54 cited
  • 2008Challenges in Macro-Finance Modeling47 cited
  • 2011No-Arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth

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38 cited
  • 2010No-Arbitrage Near-Cointegrated Var(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth38 cited
  • 2008Challenges in Macro-Finance Modeling32 cited
  • 2020Monetary transmission: Are emerging market and low-income countries different?15 cited
  • 2018A Shadow Rate Without a Lower Bound Constraint15 cited