Integrated Global Models

Abstract

Integrated global models (IGMs) attempt to build quantitative understanding of the complex, dynamic history and future of human‐environment interactions at the global scale. There is now a 30 year history of this approach. Over this period, computer simulation modeling has become a wellaccepted technique in scientific analysis, but truly integrated simulation models — those that deal with the dynamics of both the natural and human components of the system and their interactions — are still relatively rare, and those that do this at the global scale are even rarer. This paper is a survey of past experience with IGMs to serve as the basis for discussion about their role in the IHOPE project. We analyze seven IGMs in some detail, comparing and contrasting their characteristics, performance, and limitations. The integrated global data base that IHOPE will create can greatly spur the development, testing and application of IGMs. At the same time, the development of IGMs can greatly facilitate thinking about what data needs to be collected. IGMs therefore will play a central role in the IHOPE project and deserve careful consideration.

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