The Prospective Process through Scenario Thinking for the Built and Human Environment: a Tool for Exploring Urban Futures

Abstract

We are currently living through an era where we can, and need to, create exciting new possibilities in the way we think about, plan, design and build new places and spaces for working and living. At the same time, two irresistible forces – change and complexity – face decision-makers charged with framing and executing future policy and practice for the built and human environment. This paper generally argues the case for employing a ‘prospective’ process through scenario thinking for strategic planning and management in the urban arena. It does not attempt to identify or explore the advances made in planning for built and human environment over recent years or the promise of those to come. Rather, it describes and promotes a methodology which helps organisations, such as those involved in the formation of the urban environment, to learn their way into the future in a complex and changing world of uncertainty and ambiguity.

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