The determinants of loan loss and allowances for MENA banks

Abstract

Purpose – This study aims to examine the determinants of the allowance for loan losses (ALL) and loan loss provisions (LLP) for banks in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region using both a two-stage approach and simultaneous equation system to address the potential problem of estimation bias introduced by estimating the ALL and LLP separately. The paper also tests three competing hypotheses: the earnings management hypothesis, the capital management hypothesis, and the signaling hypothesis. Design/methodology/approach – The authors adopt a simultaneous equation and three-stage approaches to test whether MENA banks jointly determine LLP and ALL and the determinants of the two accounts. The sample consists of all available electronic data for 75 banks (451 bank-year observations) in nine MENA countries over the period 2000-2008. Findings – Evidence suggests that the two accounts are jointly determined. The results support the earnings management hypothesis – meaning that MENA banks have engaged in year-to-year income smoothing. The authors also find that LLP and ALL provide signals about future earnings. Research limitations/implications – The authors acknowledge that the LLP account is only one of many accounts on the income statement that could be used for signaling or to manage earnings, and that the ALL is one of several accounts that could be used for signaling, earnings or capital management. Future studies could examine other accruals for their role in managing earnings, signaling and capital. Practical implications – The results indicate that bank managers use LLP and ALL accounts to manage earnings management, policy makers may want to limit the ability of banks to manipulate earnings. Originality/value – Prior research on the loan loss accounting practices has been based on single equation models of the determinants of LLP and ALL. An issue that has not been adequately addressed in this literature is that ALL and LLP may be interrelated and jointly determined by banks. If the two accounts are not independent of each other, failure to include one when estimating the other may lead to an omitted variable problem, while including both in the same equation induces a potential simultaneity bias. The study is the first empirical work examining whether ALL and LLP are jointly determined by banks. By jointly estimating LLP and ALL, the study permits an assessment of the magnitude of the potential error from adopting ordinary least squares estimation of a single equation model.

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