The Challenges of Estimating Potential Output in Real Time

Robert W. Arnold

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Economic Growth and Productivity Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Abstract

Potential output is an estimate of the level of gross domestic product attainable when the economy is operating at a high rate of resource use. A summary measure of the economy’s productive capacity, potential output plays an important role in the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)’s economic forecast and projection.

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2000The Resurgence of Growth in the Late 1990s: Is Information Technology the Story?1979Potential GNP: Its measurement and significance 1988Variable Trends in Economic Time Series 1970The political economy of prosperity 2002The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update 1991Variable Trends in Economic Time Series

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