A Quarterly Macroeconometric Model of the Turkish Economy

Cem Aysoy · Ahmet N. Kipici

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Economic Theory and Policy Economic theories and models

Abstract

This paper aims at describing a small-scale quarterly model for the Turkish economy. It differs from previous work in two respects; (i) the explicit treatment of the expectations in the inflationary process; (ii) the effect of public borrowing on inflation via interest rates. We conclude that expectations have the greatest importance in the determination of inflation along with the exchange rate in Turkey. In addition, to use the overnight interest rate as an effective policy tool, it seems to be essential to accomplish the structural reforms so as to eliminate risk premium due to the concerns about the debt sustainability.

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References

1984Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic 1998Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia 1989The limits to rational expectations 2000Economic Models at the Bank of England 2001A Brief Account of the Turkish Economy: 1980-2000 2003Interest Rates and Exchange Rates in the Korean, Philippine, and Thai Exchange Rate Crises 2000A quarterly macroeconometric model for a highly inflationary and indebted country: Turkey 1999AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL FOR INDIA WITH EMPHASIS ON THE MONETARY SECTOR

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